Pegasus Capital

A View From the Bridge - November 2019

The Bank of England's potential to signal any shift in policy stance due to the downshift in future indicators and inflation has been deferred by the calling of an “emergency” general election. Nonetheless, economic sentiment has fallen to its weakest levels since the 2016 referendum and it is not clear how long the UK consumer can continue to prop up the UK economy. We expect the Bank to downgrade growth and inflation forecasts, leaving the door open to easier policy in the New Year.

PegasusCapital - 5/11/2019

A View from the Bridge - May 2019

The Bank of England may attempt to send a message of near term optimism at its May meeting, perhaps steering the market towards a slightly higher probability of another rate increase in 2019, but we still see the likelihood of an actual increase in rates as remote until current Brexit uncertainties are resolved.

PegasusCapital - 1/5/2019

A View from the Bridge - Feb 2019

As the clock ticks down towards the Article 50 deadline of March 29th, longer-term U.K. interest rates find themselves pretty much back where they were before the Bank of England decided to lift base rates from 0.25% in November 2017. The entire 5-year curve premium barely reflects a single interest rate increase, but for reasons that extend well beyond Brexit uncertainty.

PegasusCapital - 20/2/2019

£ LIBOR spreads to implied BOE rate close in on 2016 high

The £ 3mth LIBOR fix has been moving higher without any notion of change to BOE rate. As rates have been moving up generally, and there is always additional premium across the year-end turn, it is easy to overlook that higher credit risk is now appearing in the £ LIBOR fix

PegasusCapital - 6/12/2018

UK petrol prices look set to fall, with not immaterial effect on RPI

Petrol & Oil currently make up 35 parts per 1000 within the RPI according to the ONS, or 3.5% of the Index. The weighting within the CPI index is lower, nearer 22 parts per 1000 or 2.2% of the index

PegasusCapital - 21/11/2018

A View From the Bridge - November 2019

The Bank of England's potential to signal any shift in policy stance due to the downshift in future indicators and inflation has been deferred by the calling of an “emergency” general election. Nonetheless, economic sentiment has fallen to its weakest levels since the 2016 referendum and it is not clear how long the UK consumer can continue to prop up the UK economy. We expect the Bank to downgrade growth and inflation forecasts, leaving the door open to easier policy in the New Year.

PegasusCapital - 5/11/2019