Base Rates Articles and Whitepapers

The risks of a deflationary outcome remain very elevated. Our understanding of likely household responses is becoming more informed, particularly with regard to genuine uncertainty, precautionary savings balances being built (where possible) and the likely consolidation of credit related debt. Turning the tide on the risk of viral infection and saving lives is the driving policy of government, but by definition this just pushes another rising tide of shrinking demand onto the economy.