Elections Articles and Whitepapers

The Bank of England's potential to signal any shift in policy stance due to the downshift in future indicators and inflation has been deferred by the calling of an “emergency” general election. Nonetheless, economic sentiment has fallen to its weakest levels since the 2016 referendum and it is not clear how long the UK consumer can continue to prop up the UK economy. We expect the Bank to downgrade growth and inflation forecasts, leaving the door open to easier policy in the New Year.